Revista de Economía del Caribe

Editorial

Returns from education in labor income for formal and informal workers in the Junín region: 2016 - 2021

Resumen Este artículo tiene por objetivo identificar los principales determinantes en los "retornos de la educación en los ingresos laborales para los trabajadores formales e informales en la región Junín: 2016 -2021". Para ello utilizamos la base de datos de la ENAHO del periodo 2016 al 2021, donde empleamos el modelo de Mincer, la metodología de Heckman y el modelo Oaxaca-Blinder. Los resultados obtenidos indican que los varones ganan un 22 % más que las mujeres en ambos sectores, destacando que la educación superior universitaria tiene efectos positivos en ambos sectores (14 % en el formal y 14.7 % en el informal); la experiencia laboral beneficia al sector formal (0.262 %) pero perjudica al informal (-0.006 %) y el lugar de residencia influye positivamente en ambos sectores (8.83 % en el formal y 9.02 % en el informal). Los resultados de este estudio evidencian que la educación continua siendo un factor determinante en los ingresos laborales de los trabajadores en la región Junín, tanto en el sector formal como en el informal.

Abstract The objective of this article is to identify the main determinants of the "returns to education in labor income for formal and informal workers in the Junín region: 2016 -2021". To do this, we use the ENAHO database for the period. 2016 to 2021, where we use the Mincer model, the Heckman methodology, and the Oaxaca Blinder model. The results obtained were that men earn 22 % more than women in both sectors, highlighting that university higher education has positive effects in both sectors (14 % in the formal and 14.7 % in the informal); Work experience benefits the formal sector (0.262 %) but harms the informal sector (-0.006 %) and the place of residence positively influences both sectors (8.83 % in the formal sector and 9.02 % in the informal sector). The results of this study show that education continues to be a determining factor in the labor income of workers in the Junín region, both in the formal and informal sectors.

The Impacts of Oil Market Sentiment on Macroeconomic Variables: A Panel Vector Autoreqression Analysis

Resumo Nos últimos anos, as decisões da OPEP sobre a produção do petróleo têm causado mudanças no preço da commodity e, consequentemente, afetado as variáveis macroeconômicas dos países. Assim, o objetivo do artigo é construir um índice de sentimento do mercado de petróleo a partir dos relatórios mensais da OPEP e verificar os seus efeitos nas variáveis macroeconômicas nos países exportadores e importadores de petróleo. Para o cálculo da polaridade, utilizou-se um dicionário específico para textos econômicos e financeiros. Após a construção do índice, estimou-se um modelo VAR Painel. Os principais resultados mostraram que aumentos no sentimento do mercado de petróleo, ou seja, mais otimismo no mercado da commodity é capaz de elevar o produto da economia, reduzir a taxa de juros de curto prazo e elevar a taxa de inflação. Além disso, mais otimismo no mercado ocasiona preços menores do petróleo. Por fim, os resultados também ilustram que, apesar do efeito significativo do índice de sentimento sobre as variáveis do modelo, essa magnitude é inferior em relação aos choques do preço do petróleo.

Abstract In recent years, OPEC decisions on oil production have caused changes in the price of the commodity and, consequently, have affected the macroeconomic variables of countries. Thus, the objective of the paper is to build an oil market sentiment index from OPEC's monthly reports and to verify its effects on macroeconomic variables in oil exporting and importing countries. To calculate the polarity, a specific dictionary for economic and financial texts was used. After building the index, a VAR Panel model was estimated. The main results showed that increases in oil market sentiment, that is, more optimism in the commodity market, is capable of raising the economy's product, reducing the short-term interest rate, and raising the inflation rate. In addition, more optimism in the market leads to lower oil prices. Finally, the results also illustrate that despite the significant effect of the sentiment index on the model variables, this magnitude is lower about oil price shocks.

Beyond the keynesian revolution: a comparative study of economic thought schools after keynes

Resumo As contribuições de Keynes tiveram um impacto significativo no desenvolvimento da teoria econômica, gerando diversas correntes de pensamento no mainstream e na heterodoxia. A síntese neoclássica-keynesiana buscou combinar elementos da teoria neoclássica com a teoria keynesiana, visando reconciliar os princípios microeconômicos do modelo clássico com o pensamento de Keynes. A escola monetarista procurou destacar o papel da oferta de moeda na determinação da produção, introduzindo conceitos como expectativas adaptativas e taxa natural de desemprego. Por outro lado, os novos-clássicos se concentraram em expectativas racionais e na capacidade de os mercados se ajustarem rapidamente por meio da flexibilidade de preços e salários. Os novos keynesianos incorporaram elementos das ideias de Keynes às teorias neoclássicas, especialmente no que dizem respeito à rigidez de preços e imperfeições de mercado. Por fim, a escola pós-keynesiana se desenvolveu a partir das teorias propostas por Keynes, buscando se distanciar tanto das interpretações mais convencionais como da abordagem das escolas anteriores. Dessa forma, o objetivo deste artigo é analisar a evolução da teoria econômica dessas cinco escolas do pensamento econômico pós-Keynes, destacando suas semelhanças e diferenças.

Abstract Keynes' contributions had a significant impact on the development of economic theory, generating several schools of thought in both mainstream and heterodoxy. The neoclassical-Keynesian synthesis sought to combine elements of neoclassical theory with Keynesian theory, aiming to reconcile the microeconomic principles of the classical model with Keynes's thinking. The monetarist school aimed to emphasize the role of the money supply in determining production, introducing concepts such as adaptive expectations and the natural rate of unemployment. Conversely, the new classical economists focused on rational expectations and the ability of markets to adjust rapidly through the flexibility of prices and wages. New Keynesians incorporated Keynesian ideas into neoclassical theories, particularly regarding price rigidity and market imperfections. Finally, the post-Keynesian school evolved from Keynes's theories, seeking to distance itself from both conventional interpretations and the approaches of earlier schools. Thus, the goal of this article is to analyze the evolution of economic theory within these five post-Keynesian schools of economic thought, highlighting their similarities and differences.

Impact of the Tekoporã program on the departmental monetary poverty of Paraguayan families in the period 2018-2019

Resumen Este trabajo tiene como objetivo evaluar el impacto del Programa Tekoporã sobre la pobreza monetaria departamental de los hogares paraguayos en el período 2018-2019. Con este fin se estimaron dos métodos de evaluación cuasiexperimentales. Propensity Score Matching y Diferencias en Diferencias. Como principal resultado se constató la importancia de recibir los beneficios del programa como forma de reducción de la pobreza extrema. Sin embargo, es necesario establecer nuevas condicionalidades referentes al trabajo adulto, además de la promoción productiva de las familias como forma de incrementar la eficacia de Tekoporã.

Abstract This paper aims to assess the impact of the Tekoporã Program on the departmental monetary poverty of Paraguayan families in the 2018-2019 period. To this end two quasi-experimental evaluation methods were estimated: Propensity Score Matching and Differences in Differences. The main result was the importance of receiving benefits from the Program as a way of reducing extreme poverty. However, it is necessary to establish new conditionalities regarding adult work, as well as the productive promotion of families, as a way of increasing the effectiveness of Tekoporã.

Postgraduate research support: does the increase in the scholarship have an impact on the dropout rate?

Resumo A pós-graduação no Brasil tem enfrentado problemas de evasão e demanda, o que acarreta na necessidade de revisão de políticas como as de incentivo financeiro. Diante disso, o objetivo da pesquisa é analisar o impacto do reajuste da bolsa Capes sobre a taxa de evasão dos bolsistas de mestrado. Para tal, e com dados longitudinais de 2010 a 2015, o artigo utiliza técnicas de pareamento e de heterogeneidade. Os resultados mostram que as chances de evasão diminuem após o aumento da bolsa e as de titulação em um tempo menor aumentam. Assim, os achados reforçam a importância de políticas de incentivo financeiro para pós-graduação, principalmente no contexto de baixa demanda que o país apresenta.

Abstract Graduate studies in Brazil have been facing problems with dropout and demand, which leads to the need to review policies such as financial incentives. Given this, the objective of this research is to analyze the impact of the adjustment of the Capes scholarship on the dropout rate of master's degree scholarship holders. To this end, and with longitudinal data from 2010 to 2015, the article uses pairing and heterogeneity techniques. The estimates show that the chances of dropout decrease after the increase in the scholarship. Thus, the findings reinforce the importance of financial incentive policies for graduate studies, especially in the context of low demand that the country presents.

Strategic direction in Ingelec for recognition by the National System of Science, Technology and Innovation

Resumen Esta investigación tuvo como objetivo establecer el alcance del direccionamiento estratégico 2023-2028 del área I+D+i de "Ingelec Group S.A.S" para ser reconocido por el Sistema Nacional de Ciencia Tecnología e Innovación (SNCTI). La metodología se basó en el análisis de los lineamientos del proceso estratégico, focalizados en I+D+i; se formularon acciones estratégicas con el Modelo EFMQ (European Foundation for Quality Management) y, finalmente, se determinó el alcance estratégico con la guía del Ministerio de Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación (Minciencias). Se empleó un diseño metodológico mixto, con un enfoque descriptivo y un muestreo no probabilístico intencional. El estudio se centró en la empresa de ingeniería electrónica Ingelec Group S.A.S., donde se implementó una planificación estratégica. Los instrumentos de recolección de datos fueron aplicados a una muestra de seis coordinadores de la organización. En particular se utilizó el cuestionario EFQM con los siete criterios REDER para evaluar a la coordinadora de Investigación, Desarrollo e Innovación (I+D+i) y a la gerente general. Finalmente, se proyectó un plan de mejoramiento, diagrama de Gantt y lista de verificación o check list.

Abstract The objective of the research was to establish the scope of the strategic direction 2023-2028 of the R&D&I area of Ingelec Group S.A.S. to be recognized by the National System of Science, Technology and Innovation (SNCTI), the guidelines of the strategic process focused on R&D&I were analyzed, strategic actions were formulated with the EFMQ Model (European Foundation for Quality Management) and finally, the strategic scope was determined with the guide of the Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation (Minciencias). The study had a mixed, descriptive approach, with non-probabilistic intentional sampling. The study population was the electronic engineering company, 6 coordinators, management, and coordination of R+D+i (Research, Development, and Innovation) were approached. The interview and the EFQM questionnaire with (7) REDER criteria, an improvement plan, a Gantt diagram, and a checklist were projected.

Impact of investment in human capital on economic growth: A comparison between Ecuador and Peru

Resumen La inversión en capital humano está históricamente vinculada al crecimiento económico, respaldada por numerosos estudios, aunque algunos resultados cuestionan esta relación. En este contexto, se realiza un estudio comparativo del impacto de la inversión educativa en el crecimiento económico de Ecuador y Perú entre 2000 y 2022, identificando diferencias y similitudes entre ambos países. La investigación utiliza datos de series de tiempo extraídos de fuentes oficiales como el Banco Mundial y la Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe; con estos datos se estiman modelos de regresión lineal múltiple fundamentados en el modelo ampliado de Solow. Curiosamente, los coeficientes obtenidos indican que mientras en Ecuador el gasto en educación tiene un efecto positivo y significativo sobre el PIB per cápita, en Perú el efecto es negativo. Estos hallazgos subrayan que la efectividad de la inversión educativa en el crecimiento económico depende del contexto específico de cada país, y que la creencia de que más inversión siempre es mejor puede ser engañosa sin considerar factores críticos que aseguren que el gasto se dirija al sector productivo y genere beneficios sostenibles a largo plazo. Códigos JEL: I24, I2, O57, C22.

Abstract Investment in human capital is historically linked to economic growth, supported by numerous studies, although some findings question this relationship. In this context, a comparative study of the impact of educational investment on economic growth in Ecuador and Peru between 2000 and 2022 is carried out, identifying differences and similarities between both countries. The research uses time series data from official sources such as the World Bank and the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, with these data are estimated multiple linear regression models based on the extended model of Solow. Interestingly, the coefficients obtained indicate that while in Ecuador education spending has a significant positive effect on per capita GDP, in Peru it has a negative effect. These findings underline that the effectiveness of educational investment in economic growth depends on the specific context of each country and that the belief that more investment is always better can be misleading without considering critical factors to ensure that spending is directed towards the productive sector and generates sustainable long-term benefits. JEL Codes: I24, I2, O57, C22.

Demographic evolution and labor market: a perspective from the colombian caribbean region between 1985 and 2050

Resumen El análisis demográfico es crucial para entender las dinámicas laborales y sociales en la región Caribe de Colombia. Este estudio examina cómo variables demográficas como tasas de natalidad, mortalidad y migración impactan el mercado laboral utilizando un enfoque mixto y un alcance descriptivo, basándose en datos del Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE). Los resultados revelan una fuerte conexión entre las características demográficas y el comportamiento del mercado laboral, destacando la alta informalidad y la necesidad de políticas inclusivas. Se concluye que la composición demográfica tiene un impacto significativo en la disponibilidad de empleo en la región.

Abstract Demographic analysis is crucial for understanding labor and social dynamics in the Caribbean region of Colombia. This study examines how demographic variables such as birth rates, mortality rates, and migration impact the labor market using a mixed-methods approach and a descriptive scope, based on data from the National Administrative Department of Statistics. The results reveal a strong connection between demographic characteristics and labor market behavior, highlighting high informality and the need for inclusive policies. It concludes that demographic composition significantly impacts the availability of employment in the region.