Abstract

JACOBO, Juan Esteban. Uncertainty and probability in Keynes. A Bayesian-type review. Rev.econ.inst. [online]. 2021, vol.23, n.45, pp.137-162.  Epub Aug 30, 2022. ISSN 0124-5996.  https://doi.org/10.18601/01245996.v23n45.07.

This paper analyzes the concept of probability in Keynes' work and proposes a method for formalizing the notion of uncertainty in the General Theory using Bayes' theorem and the principle of maximum entropy. One of the main conclusions is that, despite sharing his rejection of the frequentist approach to statistics, it is unreasonable to think that numerical probabilities cannot be determined, even if some criterion of objectivity is met.

Keywords : entropy; Bayes' theorem; uncertainty; Keynes; JEL: B16, B31, C11.

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