Context:

Landslides in Tijuana, Mexico, destroy a large number of structures and infrastructures each year, producing large losses in various economic sectors.

Method:

In this study, we carry out a quantitative assessment of the hazards of landslides in a Tijuana neighborhood that was affected by a landslide in 2010 and currently shows signs of terrain instability, raising concerns about potential future landslides. The hazard assessment was calculated using the spatial probability, based on how susceptible the terrain was to landslides, and the temporal probability using a database of events that occurred at sites near te study area. We apply deterministic methods based on the analysis of slope stability to calculate susceptibility and estimate the temporal probability using probability models that consider the instances of independent random events.

Results:

It was found that more than 50 % of the studied area presents a high hazard of landslides for return periods of 5, 10, 15, and 20 years. Moreover, findings demonstrated that the seismicity, topography, and the geotechnical characteristics of the soils are the factors with major influence on ground instability. In addition, it was determined that the areas of potential landslides are in soils whose resistance has been reduced due to the presence of underground flows produced by the infiltration of water through existing cracks and fractures in the terrain.

Conclusions:

The application of the described procedure made it possible to quantify the hazards of landslides in the Laderas de Monterrey neighborhood for four return periods and to determine the factors that most influence the occurrences of these phenomena. The results obtained are an important step to analyze and evaluate the risk that landslides represent for structures, infrastructures, and people exposed to the impact of these phenomena. They are also a valuable tool for making informed decisions regarding risk management and the establishment of regulations on land use.