Abstract

ARANGO, Luis Eduardo; ARIAS, Fernando; FLOREZ, Luz Adriana  and  JALIL, Munir. Business Cycles Chronology for Colombia. Lect. Econ. [online]. 2008, n.68, pp.9-37. ISSN 0120-2596.

By using the methodology of Bry and Boschan (1971), this work proposes precise dates for the business cycles occurred in Colombia between 1980 and 2007 identifying the phases of boom and slump. During the sample period, five complete cycles were detected, which happened to be asymmetric such as those of the United States. This means that expansions are longer than recessions. On average, the cycles in Colombia between 1983 and 2007, according to IPI (Industrial Production Index), were of 45.6 months (3.8 years) approximately. The longer cycles occurred at the end of eighties and mid nineties with average durations of 68 months.

Keywords : business cycles; phases; stylized facts; probabilities.

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