Abstract

ABRIL-SALCEDO, Davinson Stev; MELO-VELANDIA, Luis Fernando  and  PARRA-AMADO, Daniel. Impacts of weather anomalies on food prices in Colombia. Ens. polit. econ. [online]. 2016, vol.34, n.80, pp.146-158. ISSN 0120-4483.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.espe.2016.03.003.

This paper estimates the impacts of weather conditions on Colombian food inflation growth. Generalized impulse response functions were used for a smooth transition non-linear model that includes food inflation and the sea surface temperature index (SST v3.4). In this study, data were obtained from the monthly period between June 1995 and May 2015. Results suggest that the weather shocks are transitory and asymmetric. In particular, a strong and positive shock has a significant effect on the food inflation growth and produces a 72,5 and 100 bases points increment four and five months later, respectively.

Keywords : Weather anomalies; Non-linear smooth transition models; Food prices index.

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