Abstract

GOMEZ PINTO, Óscar Orlando; ZAPATA, Sebastián  and  SANDOVAL, Luis Eduardo. Dynamic modeling of the criminal phenomenon in Colombia for public policy decision making. Rev. Crim. [online]. 2022, vol.64, n.2, pp.101-125.  Epub Feb 08, 2023. ISSN 1794-3108.  https://doi.org/10.47741/17943108.358.

This article arose from the need to understand crime as a public problem, which should be analyzed on the basis of a causal hypothesis that explains the criminal phenomenon in Colombia from a social perspective with different theoretical approaches, in order to establish lines of action for public policy decisions that contribute to its reduction. In the first part, the proposed causal hypothesis is presented and each of its components is developed. Subsequently, a descriptive analysis of the reports by type of crime and of the population deprived of liberty is developed, identifying the differences and similarities in the socioeconomic conditions for the crimes with the highest incidence. Finally, a continuous simulation model is developed and the result of possible public policy strategies is analyzed. The result obtained reflected the need to design pluralistic public policies aimed at solving the root causes of the crime phenomenon, in terms of social construction and the reduction of impunity.

Keywords : Prison; prison overcrowding; human rights violations; criminal policy; Penitentiary system.

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