Abstract

LARA HARO, Diego Marcelo; ARGOTHY ALMEIDA, Luis Anderson; MARTINEZ MESIAS, Juan Pablo  and  MEJIA CHAVEZ, Marcelo Agustín. The impact of crises on the performance of the Ecuadorian agricultural sector. Finanz. polit. econ. [online]. 2022, vol.14, n.1, pp.167-186.  Epub July 23, 2022. ISSN 2248-6046.  https://doi.org/10.14718/revfinanzpolitecon.v14.n1.2022.7.

This study analyzes the impact of macroeconomic crises on the agricultural sector of Ecuador. The methodology uses a vector autoregressive (VAR) approach that allows identifying the channels for the transmission of financial and economic crises towards the sector's performance in 20082020. In this context, two possible scenarios are proposed to understand the evolution of the sector in the coming years. The main results indicate that the national GDP, exports, and financing have a direct impact on the growth of the agricultural sector in the long term, while in the short term, only GDP and international nade have a negative influence on the sector. On the other hand, only financing shows a direct relationship. Finally, the proposed scenarios do not offer a very encouraging prognosis given the constant abrupt variations that prevent the sector from a continued recovery, determining its sensitivity to failures in the economic system.

Keywords : crisis; agricultural and livestock sector; economic growth; GDP Ecuador.

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