Abstract

RODRIGUEZ; CARMONA, Vicente José; AVILAN, Guillermo  and  HINCAPIE, Paola Andrea. Using mathematical probability theory for foetal monitoring. Rev Colomb Obstet Ginecol [online]. 2004, vol.55, n.4, pp.267-278. ISSN 0034-7434.

Objective: describing foetal monitoring using mathematical probability theory and defining the system’s dynamic components, seeking an initial approach towards obtaining objective and reproducible measurements, such general overview allowing any monitoring trace so obtained to be mathematically evaluated. Design: this was a descriptive exploratory study employing probability-based mathematical generalisation. Materials and methods: 45 pregnant women were studied. They were divided into two groups: group A presented foetal suffering risk factors whilst group B presented no such risk factors. All of them undergone fetal monitoring; foetal heartbeat behaviour was recorded. Each data-readout was evaluated for Results: a foetus was probably healthy if it had 3 or more times DSC T1 in its readout; if this was not the case, then such foetus was probably sick. Cases where DSC T1 appeared once or twice defined a possible limit between health and illness. It was 10 times more probable that possibly healthy foetuses would be monitored than intermediate traces and 1,000 times more probable than those presenting the least probability of appearing within total probability. The mathematical calculations suggested that one in two readouts from group A and one in three from group B could have had a doubtful diagnosis according to conventional clinical parameters. This methodology could be used for evaluating each patient’s evolution towards health or illness. However, a more rigorous study is required for clinical application.

Keywords : foetal welfare; foetal monitoring; probability.

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