Abstract

PENA Q, Andrés J et al. Trend analysis to determine hazards related to climate change in the Andean agricultural areas of Cundinamarca and Boyacá. Agron. colomb. [online]. 2011, vol.29, n.2, pp.467-478. ISSN 0120-9965.

Recognizing the threat from climate change that is facing and will face agroecosystems is the first step in determining adaptation to climate change. One way is through Global Climate Models (GCMs), but their spatial resolution is not best suited for making decisions locally, further reducing scale, seen as a way to resolve the resolution problem, has not yielded the expected results. This study puts forth an exercise in which we study the climatic time series of precipitation and temperature to determine if there are effects of climate change on one of the most important national agricultural areas, using the Mann-Kendall analysis to determine the existence of statistically significant trends, i.e. signs of change in the variables analyzed. It was found that the variable that presents the most significant trends is the average maximum temperature, while precipitation and average minimum temperature do not

Keywords : mathematical models; climate observations; temperature; mountain farming.

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