Abstract

URDINOLA, B. Piedad; TORRES AVILES, Francisco  and  VELASCO, Jairo Alexander. The Homicide Atlas in Colombia: Contagion and Under-Registration for Small Areas. Cuad. Geogr. Rev. Colomb. Geogr. [online]. 2017, vol.26, n.1, pp.101-118. ISSN 0121-215X.  https://doi.org/10.15446/rcdg.v26n1.55429.

Abstract The homocide atlas in Colombia is a visual representation of both expansion and aggravation of the armed internal conflict for the deadly decades of 1990 to 2009. However, mortality under-registration remains an issue in most developing countries, more remarkably when studying particular causes of death on small areas. This document proposes a Bayesian spatial method to identify mortality under-registration in municipalities. Probability maps help to identify under-registered municipalities in Colombia that coincide with the rise of violence at the turn of the century, which is not captured in vital registration systems. It also shows that women suffer of higher under-registration issues than men. Corrected homicide Atlases facilitate interpretation and the proposed methodology proves to be a good source of under-registration identification in small populations.

Keywords : bayesian spatial analysis; small area estimation; homicide atlas; demography of conflict; mortality under-registration.

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