Abstract

RESTREPO, José V  and  GUTIERREZ, Juan C. Assessment of Pension Guarantees in Individual Savings Accounts in Colombia. Innovar [online]. 2011, vol.21, n.41, pp.51-62. ISSN 0121-5051.

The behavior of the individual as a person who contributes, and as the future beneficiary of a pension, is a determining factor to quantify the effects that his or her density has on the individual savings system and on the ability to demand the different guarantees. That is why the objective of this work is to seek a view based on personal finance other than what has been presented in different studies in this field carried out not only in Colombia but at the international level, and to provide an approach to a solution for the problem of sustainability in retirement. To calculate the magnitude of the guarantees, a procedure was developed that combines stochastic models with diffuse logic models and actuarial estimates. In this way, and supported by results from other studies, it was possible to determine the individual savings potential that could be achieved by each individual in terms of their gender and salary cohort and the possible existing deficit for achieving a minimum retirement pension. The findings show that, under the conditions of low density of contributions, it is very difficult for the lower and middle income cohorts to be able to ensure a minimum pension without exhausting existing guarantees and without government participation.

Keywords : Pension guarantees; salary path; density of contributions.

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