Abstract

DIAZ-PINZON, Jorge Enrique. Proyection of COVID-19 Spread in Colombia. Rev. Med [online]. 2020, vol.28, n.1, pp.11-20.  Epub Dec 12, 2020. ISSN 0121-5256.  https://doi.org/10.18359/rmed.4702.

Coronaviruses are a wide family of viruses that cause disease in both animals and humans. In humans, several coronaviruses are known to cause respiratory infections ranging from the common cold to more complicated diseases such as Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). The most recently developed coronavirus causes the disease called COVID-19. The objective of this article is to present a projection, with the use of Brown's linear model, of the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Colombia, related to confirmed, active, recovered, and deceased cases. To carry out this research, the database of people infected with COVID-19 and the data information corresponding to the period from March 6, 2020 to May 5, 2020 were used. For its prediction analysis, the brown model prediction method was used, using the SPSS v.25 Statistical package. It was determined by prediction analysis that the total number of infected people by co-viD-19 in Colombia as of August 31, 2020 will be around 65,835, 46,175 active cases, 16,543 recovered and 2,577 deaths. A high population of confirmed coronavirus cases was evidenced in Colombia as of August 31, 2020; which alerts the country's public hospital network, in addition to forcing people and communities to be quarantined due to the health emergency.

Keywords : coronavirus; SARS-CoV-2; transmission of infectious disease; disease transmission models; computerized model.

        · abstract in Spanish | Portuguese     · text in Spanish     · Spanish ( pdf )