Abstract

CASTILLO N, Omar. SEASONALITY, CYCLE AND VOLATILITY OF PRICE CATTLE LEVANT MALE IN MONTERIA, COLOMBIA. Rev.MVZ Cordoba [online]. 2007, vol.12, n.1, pp.897-911. ISSN 0122-0268.

Objetive. To describe the temporal behavior of prices from livestock young male of first quality in Monteria city, Colombia, marketed by cattle auctions. Materials and methods. Analysis of weekly and monthly prices during the period 1997-2006 using statistical and econometrics techniques such as multiplicative movil mean, rate growth on annual means , and conditional autoregressive heteroscesdasticity ARCH, o GARCH models were carried out. Results. Seasonality evidences and cycles in monthly prices were found. There was no evidence of volatile behaviors in weekly prices for 1, 1¼ and 1½ years of age livestocks, but there was for those of 1¾; years old. Conclusions. Despite the seasonal and cyclical variabiability around the 70% of the cattle marketed had stability prices.

Keywords : Prices; seasonality; movil average; rate of growth; cycle; volatility; econometric models.

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