Abstract

MUNOZ-GUERRERO, Diego Andrés. Transformation and prospective in the landscape of paramo Paja Blanca, Nariño, Colombia. Perspectiva Geográfica [online]. 2017, vol.22, n.2, pp.47-66. ISSN 0123-3769.  https://doi.org/10.19053/01233769.7598.

The present investigation evaluates the transformations in the landscape occurred in the paramo of Paja Blanca, Nariño, Colombia, in the period 1984-2013; Likewise, through a descriptive analysis and logistic regressions, we established the main socioeconomic and biophysical factors that have been determinant in the transformations or changes in the mentioned period. Through the Artificial Neural Networks (RNAs) approach, landscape simulations were also made for the next 30 years. The results indicate that the most important transformations are determined by the change from fragmented natural forest to mosaic of pastures and crops, influenced by the variables: distance of roads, distance to rivers and also by population growth; Achieving an annual deforestation rate of 16 ha/year. Future simulations predict similar behavior, with significant losses of fragmented natural forest, and also a reconversion of crop areas to natural forests.

Keywords : spatial analysis; multi-temporal analysis; changes in land use; artificial neural networks.

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