Objective:

When considering the climate change vulnerability of the Colombian electricity sector and the possible risks that may arise, such as: non-compliance with firm energy obligations (FEO) by generation units, delays in generation projects with firm energy commitments (the Hidroituango case, among others) and the availability of firm energy in the market, imply a systemic risk for the provision of electricity in the medium term. Therefore, this article performs a risk analysis based on the forecasts and considerations applied in official technical documents and current resolutions of the Energy and Gas Regulation Commission (CREG) in the demand balance and OEF in the medium term, in order to determine the existing risk and the actions that the entity must take to mitigate it.

Methodology:

Through the systematic study of recent technical documents and resolutions of the CREG, a reconstruction of the balances of firm energy obligations (FEO) and projected demand in the medium term (five periods from 2018 - 2019 to 2022 -2023) was carried out with information from the electricity system operator (XM), in order to carry out analyses based on two (2) scenarios considered in CREG technical documents related to the subject (Doc. CREG 050-2018 and Doc. CREG 075-2018), thus determining the sources of risk and the measures adopted in this regard.

Results:

According to the proposed scenarios and the risk analysis carried out in this article, it was observed that the current amount of OEF, especially for the second proposed scenario, requires all the firm energy for the base reliability charge (ENF!CC) that Hidroituango can offer, in spite of being a project with delays and that probably cannot enter for the periods where there is a risk of lack of supply, for which reason it is pertinent to request a reconfiguration auction for those periods.

Conclusions:

The high probability of shortage risk for the last term under study (2022-2023) is confirmed in the two (2) scenarios proposed by the CREG, given the level of incremental ENFICCs (ENF!CC with opportunity risk) and by the availability of firm energy available to meet demand, especially by the OEF acquired by the Hidroituango project (deficit of 2500 GWh-year and 4550 GWh-year respectively).

Financing:

Universidad Autónoma de Occidente