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Revista de Salud Pública
Print version ISSN 0124-0064
Abstract
CAVALLERI, Fiorella; BUGLIOLI, Marisa; SILVARINO, Ricardo and BOGGIA, José. Gap projection for nephrologists in Uruguay 2020-2050: application of a systems dynamics model. Rev. salud pública [online]. 2022, vol.24, n.4, pp.1-. Epub Jan 03, 2023. ISSN 0124-0064. https://doi.org/10.15446/rsap.v24n4.103065.
Objective
To estimate the balance/imbalance between supply and demand of nefrologists in Uruguay for the year 2020, adding its tendency towards 2050.
Methods
A simulation model was developed, applying a two dynamic systems methodology with two components: that of supply and that of need. The base year was defined as 2020 with a projection horizon up to 2050. Supply and need were compared for the projection period to establish the gap, both in relative and absolute terms.
Results
The projection gap for all considered scenarios is that of surplus for most of the analyzed period.
Conclusions
This work offers input with respect of impactful parameters that affect healthcare specialists supply. The key value of the projections lies in its utility to identify the current situation and its future tendencies, to which those responsible for policy making have to respond.
Keywords : Workforce; health planning; projection (source; MeSH, NLM).
