Abstract

GUERRERO-HOYOS, LUIS ANGEL  and  ARISTIZABAL-GIRALDO, EDIER. Critical Rainfall Threshold Analysis And Estimation For Flash Flood Occurrence In Aburrá Valley (Antioquia). Rev.EIA.Esc.Ing.Antioq [online]. 2019, vol.16, n.32, pp.97-111. ISSN 1794-1237.  https://doi.org/10.24050/reia.v16i32.1281.

In Colombia between 1914 and 2015, there have occurred 1.139 flash floods leaving a tragic balance with 2.195 mortal victims. Recent cases: Salgar (2015) and Mocoa (2017) show the urgent necessity of establishing an early warning-alarm system for those torrential phenomena susceptible areas which have been densely populated. This job studies the Aburrá Valley case, where have recurrently presented torrential events, and puts forward critical threshold like a flash floods detonating to implementing these on an early warning-alarm system. Critical threshold were defined by the RTI (Rainfall Triggering Index) methodology, developed in Taiwan. This method uses hourly rainfall data of 15 rain gauges located inside of Aburrá Valley and flash floods inventory registered by DesInventar. From this data, it was established 1.784 potential detonating rainfall events between 1994 and 2016, with and maximum intensity average of 31,2 mm/h. Results found critical RTI values of 2.268, 2.734, 3.128 and 3.337 mm2/h for 1, 3, 7 and 15 days of antecedent rainfall respectively. Used the maximum intensity average is obtained a critical threshold of cumulated antecedent rainfall of 76, 91, 104 and 111 mm for 1, 3, 7 and 15 days of antecedent rainfall respectively.

Keywords : threshold; flash floods; early waning; rainfall; Aburrá Valley.

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