Introduction.

Risk factors associated with conversion from laparoscopic cholecystectomy to open surgery and its complications are well known. However, there are currently no prediction models for such outcomes. The objective of tis work was to devolop a prediction model for laparoscopic cholecystectomy complications.

Materials and methods.

This is a retrospective analytical study that included 1,234 patients who underwent laparoscopic cholecystectomy in an 18 months period at a fourth level of care hospital in Bogota, Colombia. A multivariable logistic regression analysis using backward procedure was performed to for the selection of variables, in order to determine the likelihood of a combined endpoint complication (presence of at least one of the complications: bile ducts injury, haemorrhage, organ/space surgical site infection). A ROC curve was performed to determine the predictive ability of the model; information analysis was performed in 13 STATA.

Results.

Patients were classified in a derivation (926) and a validation cohort (308). It was found that 69.2 % were female, median age 48 years (IQR 34-60 ), conversion rate 4.3%, organ/space surgical site infections 2.6%, combined end point complication 4.7%, and global mortality rate 0.3%. Diabetes mellitus (DM), chronic kidney disease (CKD), choledocholitiasis and Mirizzi’s syndrome were found as predictors of the occurrence of complications. The model was validated in the validation cohort, obtaining an area under the ROC curve of 58%.

Discussion.

The likelihood of major complication in laparoscopic cholecystectomy depends on age, DM, CKD, choledocholitiasis, and Mirizzi’s syndrome. Risk Factors and complications described here can guide a new research avenue and provide the evaluation of specific risks.

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