Introduction:

Growth retardation or chronic malnutrition (low height for age) indicates a failure in the natural genetic potential that allows us to growth.

Objective:

To estimate predictive models of growth retardation in households with children younger than five years in the department of Caldas and registered in the identification system of potential beneficiaries of social programs ( Sistema de Identificación de Potenciales Beneficiarios de Programas Sociales, Sisbén ).

Materials and methods:

We conducted an analytical study in all households (N=56,987) included in the Sisbén III database with the presence of children younger than five years (N=33,244). The variables under study were demographic and socioeconomic characteristics, health service access, housing, poverty, education, job market, and growth retardation. The multivariate analysis was done in two phases: first, an exploratory analysis of households using hierarchical classification (cluster), then estimation of a nonlinear predictive model (probit) with growth retardation as the dependent variable.

Results.

The largest proportion of growth retardation in children younger than five years was found in southcentral Caldas, in urban centers, and households with monthly income lower than USD$ 65.

Conclusion.

Poverty in Caldas women-headed households with children younger than five years registered in the Sisbén was the main predictor of growth retardation.

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