Objective:

To estimate the risk of mortality due to Chroic noncommunicable diseases priority in the Colombian Caribbean region using Bayesian methods for the 2008-2015 period.

Instruments and methods:

Through an ecological study, the mortality data available in the National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) database was analyzed. Adjusting the mortality rates using standardized mortality ratios (REM) by age and gender and using a Bayesian model, the smoothed risk of dying due to prioritized diseases was estimated. Its temporal evolution was assessed with annual adjusted mortality rates.

Results:

For the 2008 - 2015 period, 148,331 people died, 76 201 (51.4 %) of which were men. 58.1 % (86 185 deaths) correspond to disorders in the circulatory system, followed by malignant tumors with 24.4 % (36 188 deaths). Ischemic heart diseases occupy the first place in the causes of death with a significant increase (p<0,001) of risk as of 2011, likewise for prostate neoplasms (p<0,001) and breast neoplasms in women (p=0,022).

Conclusion:

Mortality due to the observed chronic noncommunicable diseases increased in the region during the 2008-2015 period. There is a greater tendency of risk for men for the majority of the diseases which generates relevant information so that the decisión makers in healthcare adjust the programs and services of disease prevention, promotion, attention and rehabilitation according to the reality of the territorial entity.

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