Resumen

CANDELO-VIAFARA, Juan Manuel. Indirect impacts of the exchange rate and petroleum prices in a non-oil economy: VECM and VAR approaches for the Valle del Cauca, Colombia. Finanz. polit. econ. [online]. 2018, vol.10, n.2, pp.403-436. ISSN 2248-6046.  https://doi.org/10.14718/revfinanzpolitecon.2018.10.2.9.

This article is part of a little explored literature, seeking to identify the relationship between the price of petroleum and the real exchange rate in a small, open, and regional economy in the department of Valle del Cauca, Colombia. A Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and a Vector Autoregression Model (VAR) are used with monthly data from 2001 to 2015. The results show that a boost in real exchange rate generates positive impacts on the economy and a boost in the price of petroleum generates negative and asymmetric effects in the economy. This is due to a negative effect on industry competitiveness and the wear and tear of consumption.

Palabras clave : Petroleum prices; real exchange rate; Dutch disease; cointegration; VECM; VAR.

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