Serviços Personalizados
Journal
Artigo
Indicadores
- Citado por SciELO
- Acessos
Links relacionados
- Citado por Google
- Similares em SciELO
- Similares em Google
Compartilhar
Semestre Económico
versão impressa ISSN 0120-6346versão On-line ISSN 2248-4345
Resumo
BARRAEZ GUZMAN, Daniel e PERDOMO LEON, Mariela. Structural behavior and forecast of macroeconomic variables: combining DSGE and VAR. Semest. Econ. [online]. 2010, vol.13, n.27, pp.81-97. ISSN 0120-6346.
In this paper, we estimate at the same time a VAR and a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model (DSGE) for the Venezuelan economy using Bayesian methods. The results show that the estimated VAR has a better predictive performance than traditional VAR. The DSGE response to a monetary shock and its transmission mechanism agree with economic theory, the product shrinks and this reduces inflation. The estimation technique is robust enough to deal with economies that do not have a stable behavior.
Palavras-chave : Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model; VAR; bayesian estimation; forecast.