Resumo

IPARRAGUIRRE D'ELIA, José Luis. ECONOMIC CYCLE FLUCTUATIONS IN COLOMBIA. A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS ACCORDING TO UNIVARIATE METHODS. Semest. Econ. [online]. 2011, vol.14, n.30, pp.61-85. ISSN 0120-6346.

This paper analyses the cyclical nature of Colombia's gross domestic product between 1905 and 2008. In order to stimulate the cycles, fourteen different univariate methods are used -which represents the broadest amount of techniques ever used in a study for the Colombian business cycle. The following methods are described and applied: Linear trend, cubic trend, ZIvot-Andrews cycle test, Beveridge-Nelson decomposition of unobserved components, Kalam's filter, Hodrick-Prescott filter, Hodrick-Prescott dual band pass, Christiano-Fitzgerald, Butterworth, Plucking model, SETAR and LSTAR. It also presents a comparative study of the results. The main conclusion is that the cyclic component extraction model is determinant for the structural analysis of economic fluctuations over the period.

Palavras-chave : Economic cycles; Univariate Filters; Time series; Colombia.

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