Serviços Personalizados
Journal
Artigo
Indicadores
Citado por SciELO
Acessos
Links relacionados
Citado por Google
Similares em SciELO
Similares em Google
Compartilhar
Revista Colombiana de Estadística
versão impressa ISSN 0120-1751
Resumo
KNOLLE, HELMUT. Statistical Studies of Age - Specific HIV - Prevalence Data. Rev.Colomb.Estad. [online]. 2006, vol.29, n.2, pp.181-194. ISSN 0120-1751.
The infectivity function is a function giving a measure of how infectious a given individual is t time units after becoming infected. Today, no feasible and ethically acceptable study design is known, which would lead to estimates of HIV-infection probability within steady heterosexual partnerships, using standard statistical methodology. In this paper a transmission model is used as a link between the infectivity function and data sets which already exist or can be generated with standard methods and moderate expenses. This model suggests that the distribution of HIV-infections by age and sex depends on the infectivity function as well as on age-dependent patterns of sexual partner choice. Application of the model requires populationbased data of age-specific HIV-incidences in men and women of the general heterosexual population. At present, the only known data set suitable for this purpose is a set of HIV-test results from a sample of 8690 Colombian women in pregnancy who attended prenatal care. The prevalence of HIV was 0.33% in the group of 12-24 years, but only 0.16% in the group of 25-34 years. The model can explain this strange result. A data set of age-specific HIV-prevalences in heterosexual Colombian men would be useful, but is not known. Therefore, further research and data collecting is required in order to arrive at well founded conclusions.
Palavras-chave : AIDS; Infectivity; Health risk; Branching process; Threshold; Age distribution; Colombia.