Resumo

ZARATE, HÉCTOR MANUEL; SANCHEZ, KATHERINE  e  MARIN, MARGARITA. Quantification of Ordinal Surveys and Rational Testing: An Application to the Colombian Monthly Survey of Economic Expectations. Rev.Colomb.Estad. [online]. 2012, vol.35, n.1, pp.77-108. ISSN 0120-1751.

Expectations and perceptions obtained in surveys play an important role in designing the monetary policy. In this paper we construct continuous variables from the qualitative responses of the Colombian Economic Expectation Survey (EES). This survey examines the perceptions and expectations on different economic variables. We use the methods of quantification known as balance statistics, the Carlson-Parkin method, and a proposal developed by the Analysis Quantitative Regional (AQR) group of the University of Barcelona. Then, we later prove the predictive ability of these methods and reveal that the best method to use is the AQR. Once the quantification is made, we confirm the rationality of the expectations by testing four key hypotheses: unbiasedness, no autocorrelation, efficiency and orthogonality.

Palavras-chave : Rational Expectations; Survey; Quantification.

        · resumo em Espanhol     · texto em Inglês     · Inglês ( pdf )