Resumo

VELASQUEZ HENAO, Juan David  e  GONZALEZ RIVERA, Lina María. Modeling the Colombian real exchange rate index using artificial neuronal networks. Cuad. Adm. [online]. 2006, vol.19, n.32, pp.319-336. ISSN 0120-3592.

Modeling and forecasting exchange rates is a big economic headache. This paper uses an artificial neuronal network model to represent the Colombian real exchange index dynamics because it describes the series dynamics better than a self-regressive linear model does, as may be appreciated in the result of the verosimilitud radius contrast. The model was accepted after applying a series of standard tests and contrasting the results against those obtained using a self-regressive linear model. The results indicated that the current value of a series solely depends on its previous value.

Palavras-chave : Artificial neuronal networks; exchange rate; time series; modeling.

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