Resumo

RINCON MORERA, Andrés. FROM HOPE TO NEW UNCERTAINTIES. ABOUT THE DISTRIBUTION OF THE VOTE IN THE COLOMBIAN PLEBISCITE (2016). anal.polit. [online]. 2018, vol.31, n.92, pp.137-158. ISSN 0121-4705.  https://doi.org/10.15446/anpol.v31n92.71104.

This article wants to question the commonplace in explaining electoral behavior in the plebiscite that occurred in Colombia on October 2, 2016. As a result, it offers an alternative explanation based on the main guidelines of the perspective of the median voter and the “single peak preferences”. From there it suggests that the tendencies of the vote for the “Yes”, the “No” and the abstention can be explained better from the perceived utility on the tenor of the agreement that should be signed between the National Government of Colombia and the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia-Ejército del Pueblo (FARC-EP) guerrillas. In the same way, this article wants to explain the active role played by political parties in this process, suggesting that they behave rationally and, as Anthony Downs points out, all this demonstrates that, even in non-recurrent electoral processes such as plebiscites, these parties formulate their proposals and their ideas as a means to win votes.

Palavras-chave : plebiscites; single-peak preferences; median voter; political parties; colombian peace agreement.

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