Resumo

PACHECO, Luís Miguei; ROSA, Raquel  e  OLIVEIRA TAVARES, Fernando. BANKRUPTCY RISK OF SMES: EVIDENCE FROM THE CONSTRUCTION SECTOR IN PORTUGAL. Innovar [online]. 2019, vol.29, n.71, pp.143-157. ISSN 0121-5051.  https://doi.org/10.15446/innovar.v29n71.76401.

This paper is aimed to identify statistically relevant financial and non-financial variables for bankruptcy prediction in civil construction firms. Logit and probit bankruptcy prediction models became useful and effective instruments in the verification of financial variables that indicate greater risks and anticipate critical situations for companies. Results show that the ratios with the greatest predictive power are indebtedness, solvency, capital profitability, asset profitability and financial autonomy. As for non-financial variables, exports and the number of employees are determinants in the bankruptcy forecast of a company within the construction sector. This work's contribution to related literature is the presentation of non-financial variables as determinants in bankruptcy prediction within the Portuguese civil construction sector.

Palavras-chave : Insolvency; logit; probit; SME; bankruptcy; construction sector.

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