Resumo

ZEPEDA-MERCADO, GABRIELA. MANUFACTURING SECTOR'S CYCLICAL SYNCHRONIZATION OF MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES FROM AN AUTOREGRESSIVE NONLINEAR PERSPECTIVE INCLUDING SMOOTH TRANSITION. Rev.fac.cienc.econ. [online]. 2015, vol.23, n.2, pp.163-178. ISSN 0121-6805.  https://doi.org/10.18359/rfce.1614.

The aim of this paper is to validate the Smooth Transition Auto Regressive (STAR) model for the analysis of cyclical synchronization of the manufacturing sector in the United States with Mexico, from trade liberalization in the latter. To this end the literature on the STAR methodology is reviewed and theoretical and practical contributions regarding this are described. Theoretically it is concluded that due to its inherent linear structure, the STAR models are able to guide the researcher toward choosing the appropriate methodology to model the real behavior of the data; also thanks to its non-linear component they have the ability to model asymmetric cyclical behavior of the series.

Palavras-chave : Econometric modeling; Time series; Nonlinear models; Economic cycles.

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