Resumo

MONTOYA GONZALEZ, Angie Andrea; ORTIZ BELTRAN, Fabián Gabriel  e  SANTA GUZMAN, Luis Fernando. Bayesian model for the study of dengue disease in the department of Atlántico Colombia years 2010 to 2013. Perspectiva Geográfica [online]. 2017, vol.22, n.2, pp.85-104. ISSN 0123-3769.  https://doi.org/10.19053/01233769.7603.

This papers aims to study the relationship between dengue cases and the variables given by the social, geographic and economic data of the 23 municipalities of the department of Atlantico, Colombia, through the use of completely. It was possible to analyze 7.786 cases of dengue presented in the four years of study, finding that the municipalities most affected by amount of population were Tubará, Candelaria, Puerto Colombia, Baranoa, Polonuevo and Ponedera. The best model was chosen for each year of study, based on the Deviation Information Criterion (DIC), it was found that the variables related to the social characteristics present in the dwellings and the disordered growth of the urban center were those that had the greatest influence In the increase of the number of dengue cases. The Bayesian model allowed the identification of the relationship of dengue with factors outside the health sector, establishing areas of higher risk of disease.

Palavras-chave : Atlantico; Colombia; dengue; epidemiology; spatial statistics; Bayesian model.

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