Resumo

ARISTIZABAL, Edier; GAMBOA, Marco Fidel  e  LEOZ, Francisco Javier. EARLY WARNING SYSTEM FOR RAINFALL-INDUCED LANDSLIDES IN THE ABURRÁ VALLEY, COLOMBIA. Rev.EIA.Esc.Ing.Antioq [online]. 2010, n.13, pp.155-169. ISSN 1794-1237.

The complex physical conditions of the Aburrá Valley coupled with high vulnerability levels led to scenarios with a high potential for human and economic losses upon the occurrence of natural phenomena such as mass movements, which represent 35 % of events occurring in the valley and 77 % of dead people. Due to these severe problems, since 2008, an early warning system for rainfall-induced landslides assisted by empirical rainfall thresfolds has been used. Early warning systems provide a rapid means for monitoring and communicating information about threats to a vulnerable community, so they are used primarily to protect lives, noting the possibility of occurrence of an event in advance, providing time to take action that can reduce the risk conditions. This paper describes the definition and model fit as well as presents the results of the validation of thresholds for the period 2004-2008. The found results indicate that, although the fitted model predicts the occurrence of a high percentage of events for the city of Medellin, there are still many events that occur in normal conditions, indicating that it requires the definition of local thresholds according to the valley conditions and reduce levels of uncertainty inherent in a stochastic model.

Palavras-chave : warning systems; mass movements; Aburrá Valley.

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