Resumo

PEREZ TORO, José Alberto. APRECIACIONES SOBRE EL CICLO CAFETERO EN COLOMBIA. 1925-2010. rev.relac.int.estrateg.segur. [online]. 2011, vol.6, n.2, pp.111-138. ISSN 1909-3063.

Colombia experienced a rapid rate of economic growth during the twentieth century both in nominal and real terms. Compound rate of 4.65% of GDP means multiplying growth by sixty six times between 1906 and 2000, while annual population growth rate of 2.35% means an increase of 8.86 times of this variable. Therefore per capita income improved substantially during ninety four years as this index number increased 7.45 times. Economic historians wonder about these changes as they represent structural transformations. Economic and social causes might be multiple, although coffee industry improvements during one century of modernization explain part of this historical change. Relying on time series analysis and differential calculus techniques, it is possible to establish the occurrences of cyclical behavior of some determinant macroeconomic variables. So the hypothesis we try prove in this paper relates with the set of economic policies adopted by successive governments during most of the twentieth century, that had corrective effect on economic developments on the trade cycle trends. In particular we mention the railway construction that helped integrate productive regions to international trade and the banking system that helped widening the credit system in Colombia. Development banking organizations and policies to diversify exports also contributed to economic growth. Recent microeconomic policies will help the coffee sector participate in the international supply chain, gaining added value to this emblematic national export.

Palavras-chave : economic cycle; coffee market; innovation; competences; supply chain; coffee growers.

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