Resumo

IDROVO, Byron. ¿CUÁL ES EL CRECIMIENTO DE LARGO PLAZO DE LA ECONOMÍA CHILENA? UNA RESPUESTA FORMAL PARA UNA ANTIGUA PREGUNTA. Cuad. Econ. [online]. 2010, vol.29, n.53, pp.31-55. ISSN 0121-4772.

The objective of the present study is to estimate the economy growth rate in the context of full use of the productive resources. Time series univariete models, including a deterministic tendency (with mean breaks), and a space-state model that considers a stochastic tendency and a cyclic component, estimated by Kalman´s filter were used. The cyclic component is calculated with and without regime chages (Markov-switching models), according to Friedman´s idea -plucking model. The results indicate that the Chilean economy potential growth rate would be greater than 4% annually, accompanied by economic asymmetric cycles.

Palavras-chave : economy; cycles; growth tendency; Kalman´s filter; Chile.

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