Abstract

ESPINOSA ACUNA, Oscar Andrés  and  VACA GONZALEZ, Paola Andrea. Incidencias de los sectores financiero, fiscal y externo en la actividad económica colombiana: una aproximación VAR Bayesiana. Desarro. soc. [online]. 2015, n.75, pp.11-49. ISSN 0120-3584.  https://doi.org/10.13043/DYS.75.1.

This paper analyzes the possible effects of different shocks from the financial, fiscal and external sectors, on the evolution of macroeconomic activity in Colombia. From an analytical approach of aggregate demand, it is employed Bayesian VAR models using the Minnesota prior density, with quarterly data for the period 1995-2013. Through the impulse-response analysis and Granger causality, the results show the potential risk scenarios in the aggregate economic growth, as well as stylized facts about relationships between variables of interest.

Keywords : Sectorial impacts policy; macroeconomic activity; BVAR; Minnesota prior.

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