Abstract

SALAZAR, Natalia; STEINER, Roberto; BECERRA, Alejandro  and  RAMIREZ, Jaime. The Land Price Effects on the Housing Price in Colombia. Ens. polit. econ. [online]. 2013, vol.31, n.spe70, pp.17-66. ISSN 0120-4483.

This paper analyzes the recent behavior of prices of housing in Colombia and seeks to shed light on whether there is a misalignment of prices against the fundamentals that determine them. For that, two approaches were used: the first uses a structural VAR model to forecast within sample. The results suggest that currently observed prices are not misaligned if within the same fundamental determinants include the price of land. For the second approach we constructed a structural model of supply and demand for housing. The results of this model are consistent with the VAR model and suggest that any misalignment of housing prices on their fundamentals is associated with historically high land prices.

Keywords : Housing Bubbles; Land Price; Land Use Restrictions.

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